Oceania and the World Cup: Anyone but New Zealand?
The 2026 World Cup is now only two years away and already in some regions of the globe qualification for the tournament has begun, Africa, Asian and South America (Conmebol) have played numerous games with the usual suspects leading the way in most stages.
The likes of Argentina, Egypt and Japan currently sitting top of their respective groups. With this tournament to be like no other, the format expanding from 32 teams up to 48, but what does this mean?
OFC Guaranteed Spot
Each confederation will be allocated additional spots for the contest with some being offered more than others, interestingly though is that the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) has been guaranteed one spot at the tournament and a second spot through an inter-confederation play-off.
What will this mean for the OFC then? More likely than not we will be seeing New Zealand at World Cups for years to come. Their continued dominance over the confederation, since Australia moved over to the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
This seems to lead to one outcome, and that is New Zealand qualifying for many future tournaments as confederation champions. Will we ever see a time, though, when another of the Pacific Island nations qualifies?
OFC Nations
The OFC is made up of 13 member nations, two of which are associate members not affiliated with FIFA (Kiribati and Tuvalu).
Several nations have the possibility of becoming member nations or even just associate members, an interesting story to follow is that of the Marshall Islands, often titled, ‘The last country on earth to have a football team’.
The Marshall Islands created their own Football Association in 2020 and have ambitions to join regional governing bodies in the years to come; they, however, should not pose much of a threat to future World Cup qualification for the likes of New Zealand.
Previous World Cup Appearances
In previous renditions of the World Cup, Oceania has only ever been represented twice (based on current OFC nations), both times by New Zealand and are yet to win a game.
Back in 1982, New Zealand lost all 3 group stage games, conceding twelve goals in these three games. The second and last appearance came in South Africa in 2010, where they played Bahrain in a two-legged play-off to qualify.
Since the 2010 tournament, New Zealand has gone on to win every OFC qualification process and entered into the inter-confederation play-off, losing on all three occasions to Mexico (2013), Peru (2017) and more recently Costa Rica (2022).
Will It Be New Zealand?
This new 48-team World Cup then will all but guarantee New Zealand’s participation in the next few World Cups but if a nation that is so dominant in their confederation consistently fails to qualify through the inter-confederation play-off games, can we expect to see one of the smaller nations to get through?
The logical answer based on historical performance and particularly the lack of focus on the Oceanic game from around the world would conclude that it is highly improbable that a second team from the OFC will qualify. How then can this be changed? How can a Pacific nation, excluding New Zealand, produce enough talent to challenge?
Is it possible, or is it a wild dream for any young footballer from these islands to get the opportunity to play the sport they love and enjoy playing on the world stage?
Patrick Jacquemet, OFC Chief Of Football
Speaking with the OFC and posing the question; will the new route to the World Cup finals bring with it a new generation of talent from the area and how likely is this going to affect future tournaments?
Patrick Jacquemet, the OFC Chief of the Football Division answered very positively and with great enthusiasm, he said ‘The belief from each nation will be greatly amplified with the opportunity of two nations to qualify’.
Following on from this Jacquemet linked this new process with the younger generation having an expected boost in development because they can now see a pathway to the World Cup finals that previously was much smaller and almost unattainable for some nations.
Jacquemet believes that this new exposure to the game will not only bring an improvement for future players but also that of coaches and referees in the OFC; better coaches produce better players, and better referees produce better quality games.
Jacquemet’s enthusiastic and hopeful outlook on the future of the Oceanic game did not stop there though, he believes that when a professional league is put into place, it could be sooner rather than later.
Jacquemet believes this will make a huge difference, not only to the production of new players coming through, but to that of current players, bringing with it a whole new audience watching from around the world.
The belief is that with this new World Cup format, players from the Pacific Islands will gain more exposure from outer audiences, Jacquemet referred to the success of Fijian Roy Krishna (Playing in India), Brian Kaltak (Playing in the A-League) a host of Tahitians and those from New Caledonia playing in France.
Overall, Jacquemet’s outlook on this new format is nothing but positive, and it can only help develop the talents from within the OFC, he hopes the new pathway and potential for Pacific Island players to play further around the world will be a source of inspiration for the next batch of talent to come through and be discovered from the Islands.
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Developing The Smaller Nations
New roads to the World Cup bring with them new dreams for the players of the OFC, the development does not end just there either. In 2016 FIFA introduced their Football Forward Development Programme (FFDP) which aims at growing the sport of football all over the world, particularly in smaller nations that lack a historical passion for football.
Take the Solomon Islands for example, the SIFF (Solomon Islands Football Federation) receive financial support of 5 million USD per 4-year-cycle along with an extra 100,000 USD for running costs per year.
The investments continue, FIFA have outlined several criteria they would like to see completed, each with a financial bonus accredited to it upon completion, these include employing a technical director, organising a women’s league and the promotion and development of referees, with more incentives available too.
How Tahiti Are Succeeding
A look at Tahiti, the only team to win the OFC nations cup other than Australia and New Zealand, the nation’s most famous player being Marama Vahirua, who played for Ligue 1 side Nantes in France, have they got the backing and talent to challenge?
Through FFDP Tahiti has introduced 13 competitions to the region, an increase in clubs and therefore player participation, new infrastructures and renovations of existing pitches. Part of the funding is used to finance the Festival des îles, an annual tournament held since 2008.
This tournament brings thousands of fans and players to one location to support and compete in a weeklong tournament for 11-a-side games, futsal and beach soccer.
In recent times, the nations of the OFC have seen nothing but improvement, more funding, more quality players coming through, and more opportunity for everyone; the future is looking bright for these nations.
Oceania Natives Playing Abroad
The progress of the region is evident to see with so many players now playing abroad, many natives of New Caledonia currently playing in the French football system, most notably Jekob Jeno at Grenoble Foot 38 in the second division.
Papua New Guinea have Tommy Semmy playing in Australia, or even Rafael Lea’I of the Solomon Islands who has recently left Velez Mostar in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the first Solomon Islander to play in Europe.
The footballing world is noticing talent coming out from the OFC, and it surely won’t be long until we see the names of Pacific Islanders making headlines around the world.
Past Minnows Success Stories
There are many stories of national team success around the globe coming out from smaller nations that historically are not recognised as footballing powerhouses, however, this has shown signs of becoming a more frequent occurrence.
Iceland was the smallest nation to ever qualify for a World Cup in 2018 and even now Luxembourg have reached the European Championship play-offs, two enormous achievements. What do these nations have in place and can the nations of the OFC take inspiration?
Arner Bill Gunnarsson (Technical Director for the Icelandic Federation) was asked about the nation’s success and believes a big impact on the team is how small the nation pool is, ‘We have great strength in how few we are’, he believes that this brings a stronger connection between coaches and players as well as relationships between the players themselves.
Iceland has an approximate population of around 350,000 which is almost 100,000 more than New Caledonia, is this a sign of things to come?
Iceland also benefitted from large funds contributing to more appropriate structures for football development, particularly indoor pitches to combat the cold weather. Small populations and large investments, a similar tale for the Pacific Island nations, will we see the same outcome then?
A Long Process
Unfortunately for the story, using Iceland as an example, the progression and the success of the nation’s football team did not come quickly.
To qualify for international tournaments, years of progress were put into place, and it will be important for the members of the OFC to remember that success will not come overnight or even in a couple of years.
The process of coming out of obscurity and bursting onto the scene of football is a long journey, a journey which will be joyful to see develop.
Future Plans
The OFC’s strategy ‘The Power of Football’ is a key tool to help with understanding how the confederation is planning for the future, looking at Agenda 2030 and the Kazan Action Plan there is a strong focus on participation and development of younger players.
Part of the mission statement outlines how the strategy will ‘maximise potential through addressing development outcomes at individual, community and population levels.’
This shows that the mission is not just to develop the sport for the very best players the OFC has to offer but also to develop players down to the lower regions of grassroots football. The current phase of action is focusing on community growth whilst simultaneously growing the game across the Pacific Islands.
An area the OFC is keen on developing further is inclusivity, opportunity for everyone is high on the values of the OFC and the belief of football for all is highlighted. The OFC would like to see the growth of the women’s game match that of the men’s game by 2030 as well as increasing the inclusion of people with disabilities.
The goal of all OFC competitions being accessible to people with disabilities by 2030 strongly shows the belief and togetherness of the OFC, alongside these beliefs, the promotion of peace and unity throughout the game will not go understated with the aim of having every participant and spectator feeling 100% safe at all events.
The delivery plan for ‘The Power of Football’ showcases the different areas and the OFC’s goals for development in the region.
An insight into participation strategies, partnerships to assist with the development of football and a policy to provide safeguarding and well-being of those involved.
Time Scale
So how long are we looking at before a nation other than New Zealand qualifies for the World Cup? I believe this question needs time to grow and be nurtured, the strategies in place by the OFC certainly point towards a bright future for the Pacific Islands, however, it would be wrong to speculate on success until at least Agenda 2030 is complete.
Perhaps a look back after this period would be beneficial to understand how the progressions have affected the region.
Stoppage Time
Ultimately, the question of ‘Will a nation besides New Zealand ever qualify for a World Cup?’ is complex and one that currently will be based on how efficiently outlined strategies are carried out.
It would be incredible to see a Pacific Island nation competing at a World Cup, but the process is long. We may not see another nation for the next three tournaments, or even the next eight.
However, with everything in place and the emergence of countries in Europe with similar stories in terms of populations and developments in football, it’s hard to see a day where a Pacific Island nation is not in the World Cup.
The OFC is consistently growing, an increase in player participation is evident and we are seeing more players from this region moving abroad in the hope of making a name for themselves and with it a name for their respective nations.
No longer is a World Cup dream inaccessible for these nations, aspiring young footballers can follow in the footsteps, of the likes of Roy Krishna by making a name for themselves outside of the OFC. Maybe one day players will lead their nation past the inter-confederation playoffs or even topple the giants New Zealand and qualify for a World Cup.
Written and Researched by BSc Cavan Campbell
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